Israel and Iran: A New Deterrence Paradigm

Scott Ritter- Israel’s response, however, was muted, allowing both sides to back down from a dangerous escalation cycle.

For a worrisome moment in mid-April, the world watched as Iran and Israel appeared to be on the cusp of a full-scale war that would have had dire consequences for global energy security. Deterrence postures that had kept an active hybrid conflict between the two regional powers from escalating into open conflict collapsed in the aftermath of Israel’s attack on an Iranian consular building in the Syrian capital, Damascus. Iran, having declared the Israeli action to be in violation of both international law and Iran’s own publicly declared “red line” regarding attacks against sovereign Iranian territory (the consular building, as an extension of the Iranian embassy, was seen by Tehran as falling into this category), launched a massive military retaliation using hundreds of drones and missiles. Israel’s response, however, was muted, allowing both sides to back down from a dangerous escalation cycle. Iran’s action, when combined with Israel’s limited response, has redefined the deterrence posture of the region, with Iran challenging the deterrence dominance once enjoyed by Israel.

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https://thealtworld.com/scott_ritter/israel-and-iran-a-new-deterrence-paradigm